After starting the season with five straight losses, Hawthorn was never meant to make the finals, let alone be a serious threat.

But there’s been a lot to like about the boys in brown and gold as they completely turned around their season.

Since round six, the Hawks have won 14 out of 18 games and 13 out of 16 since round 8.

Apart from obliterations against ladder leaders Sydney in round 7 and Geelong in round 17, they’ve been in every game they’ve played.

The two other games they lost were by the narrowest of margins – against Port Adelaide in round 10, they went down by one point after having a 41-point lead late in the third quarter and against the Giants in round 21 by two points.

Hawthorn led by 28 points at the final change in both those games.

Such is the evenness of this season, had they held on to win either of those two games, the Hawks would have finished third on the ladder and have a double chance.

Had they held onto their leads and won both and not let Port Adelaide or the Giants come from behind and snatch victories, the Hawks would have finished second with the double chance and the home finals.

Doubters will say but they didn’t hold on and hence weren’t good enough.

Now, Sam Mitchell’s men will play in an elimination final against the Bulldogs on Friday night. The Hawks are the in-form side of the competition – and it’s got some punters believing they could go all the way.

Optimistic fans are dreaming of silverware.

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It’s supposed to be a home final for the Doggies but as fate would have it, it’s a sold-out match at the MCG, Hawthorn’s home ground.

The Hawks have played in front of sold-out crowds at the MCG already this season, so it won’t be too daunting for them.

Most people acknowledge this is the match of the first week of the finals and while most of the Hawks will be playing in their first final, they won’t be overwhelmed.

Experts are split about who will win this battle. The Doggies have a great side with six of their 2016 premiership side remaining on the current list, led by inspirational skipper Marcus Bontempelli.

The Hawks only have three premiership players in the side – Luke Breust, Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan.

While the Hawks may well win against the Bulldogs, progressing too far beyond that this year will be hard.
If Hawthorn can make light work of the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide or Geelong await.

The Hawks’ best can match it with the best in the competition. They’ve been shown that and most other clubs will want to see the back of them. However, they did lose to both Port and Geelong this year.

History shows it’s extremely difficult for clubs to win the premiership if they finish fifth to eighth.

Nick Watson celebrates a goal. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Having said that, the pre-finals bye has had an impact, in some ways nullifying the benefit of finishing in the top four and having a week off if they win the qualifying final, but nevertheless, since the inception of the current finals system, only the Dogs have won it from outside the top four, in 2016.

While Mitchell says there is no ceiling to how much his young side can achieve this year, it won’t be easy.

The Hawks have nothing to lose, having exceeded most expectations already.

With nothing to lose, the Hawks could conflict some serious damage and that’s why the Bulldogs could be in trouble.
However, then the more experienced finals sides will be too strong for the young Hawks.

But it’s not all doom and gloom for the boys from Waverley because there are a lot of similarities between this year and 2007 – and we know what happened the following year, don’t we?

In 2007, Hawthorn had 13 wins and 9 losses from 22 games at the end of the home-and-away season and finished fifth.

In 2024, Hawthorn has 14 wins and 9 losses from 23 games and finished seventh.

Back then, a nail-biting elimination final against Adelaide in Docklands (now known as Marvel Stadium) saw the young Hawks win by three points.

A young block by the name of Lance Franklin would kick the winning goal with only seconds remaining in the match.

He’d go on to kick more than 1,000 goals in his career and be one of the all-time greats.

Jack Gunston celebrates a goal in his 250th AFL game. (Photo by Morgan Hancock/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Unfortunately, the baby Hawks would go down the following week to North Melbourne by 33 points in the semi-final at the MCG.

But that burning desire to win was eating up coach Alastair Clarkson and he went to work.

A few strategic recruiting moves in the off-season and the master coach got his boys going the following year.

Hawthorn was also much better off with some finals experience. It placed them in good stead to tackle 2008 head-on.

In 2008, Geelong was the dominant team all season. Everyone expected them to go back-to-back but not the master coach.

He knew his boys could pull off something special and they did – the young Hawks went all the way, winning one of the most incredible Grand Finals against their more fancied rivals.

With Ben Dixon, Joel Smith and Richard Vandenberg retiring at the end of 2007, at the time, Hawthorn had one veteran (former captain Shane Crawford) in the side.

Clarko convinced former Port Adelaide spearhead Stuart Dew to come out of retirement and don the brown and gold – now he had two experienced leaders.